MARKET TRENDS BLOG POST

June 20, 2017

- 06/20/2017

Mortgage rates were steady to slightly lower today, with underlying bond markets essentially erasing the damage seen yesterday. This was neither here nor there for the mortgage world as most lenders didn't adjust rates much higher yesterday (despite bond weakness).

Thus, they didn't have much to do today when bonds strengthened. In general "bond market strength" = lower rates and vice versa.

There were no significant economic reports or major market-moving headlines today--at least not for rates. Oil prices and political headlines might make the evening news, but neither were directly responsible for the bond market improvement.

The absence of change continues to be a good thing given that rates remain very close to their lowest levels in more than 8 months. Only a handful of recent days have been any better. 4.0% is the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios, though a few of the aggressive lenders remain at 3.875%.

Loan Originator Perspective

I am finding most clients are wanting to lock in at current pricing. Bonds continue to hold in our recent downtrend. With the downtrend still intact, i think floating for now is the way to go. If you want to lock today, I would hold off until as late as possible to allow lenders to pass along today's gains. - Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Bond markets posted small gains this AM, then built on them as of mid PM trading. My rate sheets (issued in the morning) were virtually identical with yesterday's. There weren't any significant economic data or global drama events prompting the advances, which can signal strong demand for bonds. Keep in mind, the variations we're seeing here aren't life altering, will influence lender credits more than actual rates. Since most lenders didn't reprice better during the day, I favor floating overnight to see what tomorrow's rates look like. - Ted Rood, Senior Originator

Today's Most Prevalent Rates

• 30YR FIXED - 3.875-4.00
• FHA/VA - 3.5-3.75%
• 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.125-3.25%
• 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender

Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

• Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm.
• Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April. Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher. Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have).
• For the first time since the election, we're in a rate environment where you wouldn't be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement. Until/unless it's broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we're now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
• Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.

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