Market Trends

The consumer price index increased 7.7% annually and 0.4% monthly. That yearly figure is the slowest rate since January. But more important is the slowdown in core CPI, which is a better gauge of inflation because it strips out volatile food and gas prices. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly in October, a big drop from 0.6% in September and August.

Election update: The balance of power in DC became only a bit clearer yesterday as votes continue to be counted in competitive House and Senate races. The GOP appears on track to eke out a win in the House, but they still need to win two of the three outstanding Senate races to gain control of that chamber. Meanwhile, in a surprisingly close House race in Colorado, Democrat Adam Frisch and incumbent GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert are separated by a razor-thin margin that could trigger a recount.

The average 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate is 7.32%, which is a growth of 15 basis points from one week ago, however rate buy downs are becoming more widespread and can be a great strategy to drastically increase affordability for buyers when negotiating a purchase. If you’re interested in seeing how this strategy can be used please reach out here.

 

The average price for a gallon of regular gas fell across Newport Beach to its lowest level since at least 2019 on Thursday, according to the latest figures from AAA. "Prices are rapidly dropping because the supply and refinery issues that caused them to skyrocket in September and early October were resolved when the state allowed early sales of winter blend gasoline, easing the supply crisis.

The September jobs report on Friday showed the U.S. economy gained 263,000 jobs last month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.55 to 3.7%.

 

“The labor market is too hot for the Fed. I think it keeps them on a pretty aggressive tightening path. I expect another 75 basis point hike in November. They can hopefully moderate and reduce the size of rate hike to 50 basis points in December,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in an interview with MarketWatch.

 

Inventory is still at record lows, the flow of new for-sale listings coming on the market remained anemic, down 16.2% from last year, much like August’s 16.5% year-over-year decline.

Mortgage rates this week jumped by the largest amount in 35 years, making home-buying significantly more unaffordable in just seven days. The rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage surged to 5.78% from 5.23% last week, according to Freddie Mac, marking the biggest one-week increase since 1987 and hitting the highest level since November 2008. The average rate is more than two and a half points higher since just the start of the year. (Yahoo Money)

 

— Here is what Jerome Powell had to say….”We are watching it to see what will happen. How much will it really affect residential investment? Not really sure. How much will it affect housing prices? Not really sure. Obviously, we are watching that quite carefully…It’s a very tight market. So prices might keep going up for a while, even in a world where rates are up. So it’s a complicated situation and we watch it very carefully. I'd say if you are a homebuyer, somebody or a young person looking to buy a home, you need a bit of a reset. We need to get back to a place where supply and demand are back together and where inflation is down low again, and mortgage rates are low again."

 

The U.S. stock market met popular criteria for a bear market this week as the latest declines by the S&P 500 took the U.S. large-cap benchmark down by more than 20% from its record close in January. Investors, no doubt, are wondering how far stocks might fall from here, and what to do next. Fears that drastic rate hikes may trigger a recession in the next year are hanging over markets, analysts say. (Marketwatch)